dysnomia.us

carving up the arctic

Did you hear about last week’s big Arctic conference?

• Nations meet over Arctic claims
• Russia confident its Arctic claim will succeed
• Russia’s Arctic holds 100 Bln tons of oil, gas

It was called by the Russians, held in Russia, and mostly covered by Russians. Canadians paid a lot of attention too, I think. Anyway, the Russians are getting right down to business:

• Surgut, Bashneft cleared to bid for Arctic oil fields
• The struggle for Arctic riches: Nuclear power at heart of Russia’s Arctic ambition

This strange construction, part ship, part platform, is unique and lies at the heart of Russia’s grand ambitions for the Arctic.

When it is completed in 2012, it will be the first of eight floating nuclear power stations which the government wants to place along Russia’s north coast, well within the Arctic Circle.

The idea is the nuclear reactors will provide the power for Russia’s planned push to the North Pole.

Meanwhile:

• Russian jets buzz US navy frigate in Arctic in Cold War-style show of force
• Russia denies creation of Arctic forces

Here’s a dissenting opinion about the importance of the Arctic. It’s from an oil industry perspective, though, which is quite different from a national perspective.

• Cooling the Arctic hype

Even without the oil, the opening of new sea lanes is a big story in its own right:

• Norway sends first non-Russian vessel through Northeast Passage

arctic roundup

• Shell Allowed To Drill in Arctic’s Chukchi Sea
• Murkowski proposes study of Arctic port sites
• A Heads-Up on Russia’s Role in Arctic

heating up in the arctic

• Russia foresees military conflict over Arctic
• Canada issues Arctic warning
• Really Cold War Looms Over Arctic Oil

“The year is 2020, and, from the Middle East to Nigeria, the world is convulsed by a series of conflicts over dwindling energy supplies. The last untapped reserves of oil and gas lie in the most extreme environment on the planet — the North Pole — where an estimated bonanza of 100 billion barrels are buried deep beneath the Arctic seabed. The ownership of this hostile no-man’s-land is contested by Russia, Denmark, Norway, the U.S and Canada. And, in an increasingly desperate battle for resources, each begins to back up its claim with force.”

• Russia, Norway discuss Arctic energy development

post-soviet roundup

Haven’t checked in on Georgia for a while. What a mess.

• Georgia says foils rebellion, accuses Russia
• GEORGIA: TBILISI PROTESTS PRODUCE A MOBILE PARLIAMENT
• Georgian opposition extends protests to Tbilisi City Hall
• Russia Digs In Alongside Breakaway Territories

The European Union has finally decided that it can’t accomplish anything in the Middle East, so maybe it should pay some attention to, y’know, Europe:

• European Union to Reach Out to 6 Former Soviet States in Meeting

“There are new priorities on the agenda which were not so obvious last year, including the need to stabilize these countries, which are moving from one crisis to another,” said Nicu Popescu, a research fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “The focus is less on structural adjustments or institution-building and more on crisis management.”

And file this one under “what could possibly go wrong?”

• Russia Plans to Power Arctic Oil Drilling With Floating Nuclear Plants

enviro stuff

This is very wonkish, and it represents a reformist (as opposed to revolutionary) approach to climate change, but it’s an example of where the debate should be. Not “is it happening?”, but “what can we do about it?” The answer is probably “a lot more than any politician has been willing to say yet,” but you knew that.

• The breakthrough technology illusion

And that is why the analogy of a massive government Apollo program or Manhattan project is so flawed. Those programs were to create unique non-commercial products for a specialized customer with an unlimited budget. Throwing money at the problem was an obvious approach. To save a livable climate we need to create mass-market commercial products for lots of different customers who have limited budgets. That requires a completely different strategy.

This second one is going to be worth following, I think:

• Arctic Sea Ice Not Only Covers Less Area, It’s Thinner Too: New Data Shows

• Natural resources top agenda at polar summit

And in case you missed this earlier in the week:

• Giant mass of Antarctic ice ‘set for collapse’

And more cheerful news:

• Depletion of Prey Fish may be Starving the Oceans

OK, tomorrow will be better news. Maybe some pirates, and I’ve already got a zombie lined up for you.

geopolitics

Been a long time since we checked in on the remaining Republic of Georgia, eh? Long story short: Georgians stuck by President Saakashvili during the war and immediately after, but now that it’s clear that Georgia got pwned, the opposition is heating up. Can the government remember it’s on the side of democracy, or will it crack down? Meanwhile, the Russians (I almost typed “Soviets”) are digging in in both Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

• Tensions Grow in Georgia Over Accusations of a Plot
• 8 Georgian opposition members to remain in custody
• Russia to help defend Abkhazia, S. Ossetia borders

• Liquid War: Postcard from Pipelineistan

Global financial crisis or not, oil and natural gas are the long-term keys to an inexorable transfer of economic power from the West to Asia. Those who control Pipelineistan — and despite all the dreaming and planning that’s gone on there, it’s unlikely to be Washington — will have the upper hand in whatever’s to come, and there’s not a terrorist in the world, or even a long war, that can change that.

And this:

• Russian subs ‘to back Arctic claims’

arctic, nukes and food (updated with genuine science!)

• INSIDE WASHINGTON: Who’s minding your food?
• Crop Scientists Say Biotechnology Seed Companies Are Thwarting Research

The researchers, 26 corn-insect specialists, withheld their names because they feared being cut off from research by the companies. But several of them agreed in interviews to have their names used.

The problem, the scientists say, is that farmers and other buyers of genetically engineered seeds have to sign an agreement meant to ensure that growers honor company patent rights and environmental regulations. But the agreements also prohibit growing the crops for research purposes.

This has been coming for a while- good number of enviros are going to be looking at nuclear power as the only way to get off of fossil fuels. As nothing continues to be done on climate change, it’s going to become more palatable as a last-ditch effort.

• Nuclear power? Yes please…

The one-time opponents of nuclear power, who include the former head of Greenpeace, have told The Independent that they have now changed their minds over atomic energy because of the urgent need to curb emissions of carbon dioxide.

They all take the view that the building of nuclear power stations is now imperative and that to delay the process with time-consuming public inquiries and legal challenges would seriously undermine Britain’s promise to cut its carbon emissions by 80 per cent by 2050.

• Italian Renaissance: Italy Aims for Nuclear Revival, Too

And no matter how safe it becomes, here’s one good reason that it will remain a bad idea:

• U.S. Energy Department Cannot Account for Nuclear Materials at 15 Locations

I’m not going to try to cover the big fights over the melting Arctic that have been happening for the last few weeks. Here’s one good little piece that brings two of the big issues together, and today’s news with an  interesting paragraph:

• A Wrinkle In Ice (or Not)
• Scientists find bigger than expected polar ice melt

“We’re beginning to get hints of change in ocean circulation, that’ll have a dramatic impact on the global climate system,” IPY director David Carlson told journalists.

Changes in ocean circulation are one of the big climate predictions to watch out for.  If that’s what they’re really seeing, then it has the potential to set off some large-scale changes that people don’t really expect yet.

And the awesome thing about the Arctic for the true news nerd is that it’s a scientific and environmental story, but it’s also about politics and navies and such:

• Russian general says watching Arctic militarization

EDIT: And this, by way of Technoccult:

• Study debunks ‘global cooling’ concern of ’70s

post-soviet round-up, russians in the arctic and pirates

Georgia hasn’t really stabilized yet:

• Georgia says two OSCE monitors detained by separatists
• OSCE observers arrive illegally in South Ossetia.
• South Ossetia says Georgian shells hit capital
• Russian Troops Present In Georgian-controlled Area – Tbilisi

And Russia’s got trouble of its own just across the Caucasus:

• 4 police, 3 insurgents killed in Russia clash

Doesn’t stop the Russians from looking north, though:

• Russia sending more ships, scientists to Arctic
• NATO cannot boost presence in Arctic – Russian president’s envoy

Since I’m doing world politics tonight, I’ll take up my sadly neglected duty of telling you everything that happened with pirates. Did I even mention last week that the MV Faina was released? That’s the ship that was carrying tanks and other weapons to Kenya, although the arms are widely thought to have been intended for a Sudanese faction.

• Ukraine Welcomes Release of Captive MV Faina
• Kenya denies paying ransom to free MV Faina

According to David Musila, Assistant Minister for Defense, the military equipment will be off-loaded from the ship starting on Friday.

The military equipment, he said, will be delivered by rail to the Kahawa Garrison before transportation to the Armor Brigade in Isiolo in northern Kenya.

“We shall invite the media to witness this process,” Musila said, adding that this will convince those people that have doubted that the cargo was meant for Kenya.

• Fighting pirates in the Gulf of Aden

The U.S. and Russian navies joined forces today in the Gulf of Aden in an extraordinary and spontaneous display of counter-piracy cooperation and high-seas diplomacy. The U.S.-guided missile cruiser Vella Gulf and the Russian destroyer Admiral Vinogradov launched a coordinated military response to a distress call from a Panamanian cargo ship, which reported it was about to be attacked by pirates.

• Danish navy hands over pirates to Dutch authorities
• US Navy seizes 7 suspected pirates off Somalia
• U.S. Navy captures more suspected pirates off Somalia

But before anyone gets too excited about their antipiracy patrols:

• Somalia: U.S. Policy Aided Rise in Piracy

Among the litany of booby traps left by the Bush administration for the Obama team, Somalia could be one of the most complicated and bizarre.

The crisis there is also an opportunity, however, as one of the main obstacles to all-party peace talks was the Bush administration’s cynical and unrealistic refusal to talk to the most powerful insurgent groups in Somalia because of their alleged association with terrorism. The Obama administration, if Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s confirmation hearing is any indication, also views the Horn of Africa in the context of terrorism.

Nevertheless, Obama has also talked of his preference for diplomatic solutions. Somalia would be an ideal place to test his diplomacy.

assorted news

• Pentagon to Detail Troops to Bolster Domestic Security

Before the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, dedicating 20,000 troops to domestic response — a nearly sevenfold increase in five years — “would have been extraordinary to the point of unbelievable,” Paul McHale, assistant defense secretary for homeland defense, said in remarks last month at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. But the realization that civilian authorities may be overwhelmed in a catastrophe prompted “a fundamental change in military culture,” he said.

I posted an earlier development of this a couple of months ago. I warned people then not to be stupid- this didn’t mean martial law. The reason for that warning was that the paranoid left was going through one of its occasional panics about martial law, canceled elections, etc. that never seem to pan out. I think these panics are a symptom of ignorance, and more effort needs to be made to educate people on the practical matters of politics.

But this shouldn’t obscure the fact that we have a creeping authoritarianism in this country that has its roots before 9/11, and is unlikely to get turned around if we don’t take action against it.  I’m wary of terms like fascism,  martial law and police state, because they have specific meanings that don’t necessarily apply the way people use them, but I’m afraid that by shunning the terms, I lose the ability to talk about what’s happening in a way people understand. I suppose we need new ways to talk about these things that reflect today’s world, much like most of the rest of our political vocabulary.

And now, pirates!

• Somalia: Yemeni cargo ship set free
• Warships rescue merchant vessels in Gulf of Aden
• Pirates attack luxury cruise ship bound for Australia
• US cruise ship outruns Somali pirates’ guns

Several of these stories indicate pirates attacking in greater numbers than before, or going after new types of targets. I’d suggest this is a tactical response to the increased presence of foreign navies in the region. It may mean the pirates will be able to respond to changing conditions and will not be suppressed as easily as some people expect.

• Pollution Causing Arctic Ice To Darken And Melt Rapidly
• Is This The World’s First Global Warming Induced Mammal Extinction?

The rare white lemuroid possum hasn’t been sighted for the past three years. Scientists are concerned it might have the ignominious distinction of being the world’s first mammal sent to extinction by global warming.

• NASA Extends Contract with Russian Federal Space Agency

This contract is good news, in a sense. It means we’ll be using the Soyuz to send astronauts to the International Space Station, and I certainly wouldn’t argue that we stop going up there. But what’s up with having to rely on the Russians? Once the shuttle is retired, we’ll have no capability to put humans in space. Not until the new system is up and running, and who knows how NASA will fare over the next few years?

world news

I’m busy packing tonight, so here’s a quick crawl through the post-soviet periphery and a couple other things.

• Russia says U.S. mercenaries, others fought for Georgia
• The Return of ‘White Tights’: Mythical Female Snipers Stalk Russians
• Alleged Shooting Fuels Tensions Between Moscow And Tbilisi

• Three Germans detained related to attack on EU office in Kosovo
• Kosovo ‘to work’ with EU mission
• Kosovo again opposes EULEX plan; Albania airs doubts

• UN Extends EU Peacekeeping Mandate in Bosnia
• Bosnia Defence and Security Report 2008

• Moldova’s Territorial Integrity Key Principle for Transdniestrian Settlement – U.S. Ambassador

• Ingushetia in ‘state of civil war’

• NATO eyes face-saver for Ukraine, Georgia

• Ukraine to prospect for gas on Black Sea shelf – PM Tymoshenko

• A court blocks an Arctic Ocean drilling plan by Shell