the news- hard times for georgia
I’m going to say that Georgia bit off more than it could chew. South Ossetia is lost, Abkhazia will probably go next, and Russia is hitting sites far beyond these regions. Hard to say how far the Russians will go, but there are three basic strategic objectives we could be looking at, beyond securing the two regions:
- Preventing Georgia from going back into the disputed areas.
- Destroying Georgia’s ability to wage war.
- Regime change, either immediate or through thorough destabilization.
There’s a certain logic to any of these. The first is a bare minimum. The other two imply broader political goals in the Caucasus, which are not unreasonable to expect at this point.
You can bet that once some sort of peace has been achieved, Kosovo will be the model for determining the future status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, at least in the short term. They may be absorbed into Russia over time, however.
Georgia move fails to halt raids
Russia has continued air raids deep inside Georgia, after it rejected Tbilisi’s announcement that it had called a ceasefire and wanted talks.
Jets bombed targets near Tbilisi, including the airport, and Russia said its warships had sunk a Georgian boat that approached and tried to attack.
Russia earlier took control of the breakaway region of South Ossetia, forcing Georgian troops to withdraw.
Abkhazia: Moscow sends troops into second enclave
Mobilization in Abkhazia
Bombs fall on outskirts of Tbilisi
Russian bombs pound Georgian city
U.S. suggests Russia wants “regime change” in Georgia
Bush, Cheney Increasingly Critical of Russia Over Aggression in Georgia
The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations suggested Sunday that Russia is seeking “regime change” in Georgia, after Russia’s foreign minister reportedly told Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Sunday that Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili “must go.”
Of course, the important stuff is still well in hand:
BP Operations Continue Amid Georgian Fighting, Pipeline Fire
Minister: Conflict in Caucasus will not harm BTC pipeline
And some analysis:
“South Ossetia, payback for Kosovo”
This is no pipeline war but an assault on Russian influence
