the news from georgia
It looks like a ceasefire has been declared, but there’s no sense worrying about the details until we see if it goes into effect. Not much evidence of that yet, but it’s too early to tell. There are a few reasons the fighting may be continuing, some less encouraging than others:
- one or both sides may have just been negotiating to buy time for more military action
- it can take a while to disentangle forces on the ground
- local forces, regular or irregular, may be out of command
- either side could be protecting its lines as it draws back
- the Russians could be doing some last mopping up to keep the Georgians from recovering too soon
One more thing: there’s lots of talk about a Russian invasion of “Georgia proper.” In fact, as far as actual ground troops go, it sounds like they’ve only gone as far as the strategic junctions from which Georgia could send another wave of troops into Abkhazia or South Ossetia. That implies limited goals, at least on the military front: they’re going to defend their gains in the de facto republics, but they’re not going any further than that. In other words, they’re not going to conquer or occupy the remains of Georgia. Not anytime soon, at least.
There goes the last of what they were fighting to take back:
Georgia pulls forces from disputed Abkhazia gorge
Tbilisi alleges ‘massacres’ near South Ossetia
For context, however, the Russians were claiming the same thing about Georgia a few days ago:
Tribunal on acts of genocide in South Ossetia to be set up
To be blunt, the logic of this sort of conflict calls for ethnic cleansing on either side. It would most likely be carried out by militias to preserve deniability for the state actors.
Nearly 100,000 uprooted by conflict in South Ossetia: UN
Ask Milosevic how long this sort of boost lasts:
Georgia’s Defiant President Finds Support in Midst of War
Before the Gunfire, Cyberattacks
Russian hackers continue attacks on Georgian sites
ANALYSIS-Strategic blunder led Georgia into S.Ossetia folly
Georgia made a strategic miscalculation in trying to rapidly overrun South Ossetia, and as a result has probably lost the region for good, regional analysts say.
While Russian-backed separatists in the breakaway Georgian region helped provoke Georgia into action, it was the belief that its troops could secure a lightning victory that underpinned Georgia’s decision to attack.
“The Georgians rolled the dice and they lost,” said Michael Denison, an expert in Russian and Eurasian affairs at Chatham House, a London-based security think tank.
“It was not an unreasonable calculation to go for a rapid win, but in the end it was a miscalculation.”
With Georgia, Russia at war, where’s Condoleezza Rice?
There will probably be lots more trouble in the Caucasus, but the smart observers are turning an eye now towards Ukraine:
Russia May Turn Focus to Pro-U.S. Ukraine After Beating Georgia
And if Ukraine threatens the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s access to the Crimea, that crisis could happen a lot faster than anyone expects:
Ukraine says it may bar Russian navy
And finally, oil!
Fire Extinguished In Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Oil Pipeline
Turkey loses $300,000 a day on BTC, exports to resume after repair
BP shuts down Baku pipeline
