dysnomia.us

news headlines- fighting in georgia

I’ve been meaning to do a sort of backgrounder on Georgia. I guess there’s no time like the present.

South Ossetia

On Thursday 07 August 2008 Georgian military forces fought their way into the capital of the breakaway region of South Ossetia. Russian tanks entered the breakaway region as Georgian forces fought for control of the regional capital Tskhinvali. Georgian officials demanded Russia stop air attacks on Georgian cities – which Russia denies carrying out. Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili said Georgian forces have shot down two Russian aircraft. Russian President Dmitri Medvedev pledged to defend Russian citizens in South Ossetia, an area where many residents hold Russian passports. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin condemned the Georgian advance and vowed to retaliate. The White House, NATO, the European Union and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe have called for an immediate end to the violence.

Wikipedia: Georgia (country)
CIA Factbook: Georgia
The Guardian: Timeline: South Ossetia
BBC: Q&A: Violence in South Ossetia

A couple basic headlines, but there’s no sense trying to stay current here.
Georgia conflict escalates as Russian tanks enter South Ossetia
UN Security Council Fails to Agree on Georgia

A little basic analysis, but there’s plenty of that to come:
ANALYSTS’ VIEW-Security experts on South Ossetia fighting
Russia’s `War’ With Georgia Dashes NATO Entry Plans
Did the U.S. Prep Georgia for War with Russia?
The candidates on Georgia

And I know you’re waiting to hear what your Papa Brainwash has to say about the whole issue, but I’ll keep it brief. The Bush administration has trained and equipped the Georgians and encouraged an aggressive stance on their part. So what are they going to do now? They can let Georgia get hosed by the Russians, who can probably win this as long as they confine it to South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Even if they lose, Georgia will get mauled. The Bushies can’t send troops in to directly support the Georgian army- we can’t spare any troops, and we’re certainly not going to go up against the Russians. We could support a proxy war against the Russians, which is feasible but can’t go well for anyone. It’s pretty much a no-win situation. Like Iraq, the time to do the right thing is long since past and there are no good options left.

Lots of folks will be watching this. Every little country that has relied on the US for protection is going to be very interested in how this turns out. You can bet that Ukraine will be refiguring its strategic position as a result. South Korea and Taiwan? Yep. Any Arab country that thinks about cozying up to us? Rethinking that. It’s hard to see many outcomes that won’t seriously hurt our standing in the world. Yes, there’s still room at the bottom.

Or maybe Georgia will coast to a flawless victory, and I’ll look like an ass. Whatever. I’m used to that.